The End of Summer, The Olympics, and Market Volatility: A Reflection

As the Olympic torch is extinguished, signaling the end of the Summer Games, we find ourselves also nearing the end of summer itself. For many, including my family, this marks the start of a new sports season, with kids gearing up for cross country and soccer. It's almost as if the cooling air and the anticipation of fall activities are reminding us that change is in the air—cue the pumpkin spice, anyone?

Reflecting on the past few weeks, there's no denying the global attention that the Olympics commanded. In fact, I’d like to believe that the recent stock market volatility was, at least in part, due to the world collectively pausing to focus on the greatness displayed by the athletes.

This games I found my thoughts falling toward our Olympians that did not medal (while of course enjoying the medal events as well!). In many ways, I think non-medalists deserve more of our attention. After all, they are still Olympians. Were these Olympians not great because they did not medal? Were the Olympians only great during these games, or did their greatness begin years ago when they committed themselves to excellence? Medal or no medal, Olympians all, I think we all know the answer, they are some of the hardest working, driven, individuals on the planet. We commend you!

While I have no concrete evidence, I speculate that this year's viewership of the Olympics might have contributed to the fluctuations we’ve seen in the stock market. But now, with the closing ceremony behind us, perhaps we will see a return to more typical levels of volatility—at least, that's my hope. And while I typically suggest leaving hope and faith at the door when it comes to investing, the hope the Olympics provide has me relinquishing this mantra, at least for today.

As we shift into fall, a season that historically (at least statistically) brings its own challenges to the stock market, I can’t help but feel that this year might be different. With the sides seemingly dug in for the upcoming presidential election, it feels like the decision on the outcome has already been made, at least in the collective consciousness. Although market analysts often discuss the election's impact on market trends, I suspect that the most intense volatility has already played out, especially considering that we recently experienced the third-highest volatility spike in history, as measured by the CBOE VIX index. What are the chances of hitting that peak again in the same year? (Did I just say that…?)

If anything, the recent volatility has brought some sanity to stock prices and provided market participants a much-needed breather from relentless upward movement—something that can be considered very healthy in the long run.

As communities around the country welcome home their local Olympians (Allie Wilson here in Wallingford PA, CONGRATS!), let's continue to celebrate their greatness and the inspiration they provide to us all (didn’t we all work out a little hard these last few weeks?). Their dedication and perseverance remind us that, much like in the markets, success is built over time with patience and resilience. As we transition into the fall, let's hope that the same disciplined approach that propels athletes to greatness will also guide market participants toward steadier, more predictable outcomes. After all, just as in sports, it’s not the short-term victories (or failures) that define us but the consistent effort over time.

About the Author – Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

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