Members' Wealth | Our Insights

Navigating Your Portfolio From Week to Week

Written by Dane Czaplicki | Jan 27, 2025

 

 

In the Eye of the Political Storm: Navigating Your Portfolio From Week to Week"

The intersection of politics and investing often feels like a high-stakes poker game. Emotions run high, predictions abound, and everyone has their “ace in the hole.” As a wealth management firm, we serve a wonderfully diverse client base. Our philosophy remains clear: steer neutral in politics, but focused on purpose—to preserve and grow your wealth, regardless of who’s in the Oval Office.

Lately, our phones have been buzzing with two distinct questions:

  • "Should I reduce stock risk given the expected policies of the Trump administration?"
  • "Should I increase risk exposure given those same policies?"

This split reflects the challenge of forecasting short term outcomes in a world full of unknowns. But here’s the reality: timing markets based on political sentiment is rarely a winning strategy.

For example, this past week (ending January 24, 2025), the stock markets took a bumpy yet generally upward ride:

  • Equities (as of January 24, 2025): The S&P 500 closed at 6,101.24, down 0.29% for the day but up 1.74% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 44,424.25, decreasing 0.32% on Friday yet gaining 2.15% over the week. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 19,954.30, declining 0.50% for the day but rising 1.65% for the week.
  • Interest Rates (as of January 24, 2025): The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield settled at 4.61%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous day's 4.65%, as investors assessed mixed economic data.
  • Commodities (as of January 24, 2025): West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices declined to $74.60 per barrel, influenced by concerns over global demand and rising inventories.
  • Trade and Tariffs: Investors are closely monitoring potential policy changes, including proposed tariffs by President Donald Trump's administration, which could impact global trade dynamics and inflation.

So, what’s the lesson? Week-one winners weren’t those with a crystal ball but those who stayed the course or rebalanced thoughtfully. Remember, one week doesn’t make a year, and the next week may always reverse course—but reflecting on our actions can teach us a lot about the value of discipline and strategy.

The truth is investing is less about reacting to headlines and more about sticking to a sound plan. Staying invested, rebalancing when appropriate, and working with a partner who helps you weather stressful times can make all the difference.

As we move from one era of political uncertainty into another and monitor evolving market conditions week to week, we’re here to guide you. Let’s focus not on what we can’t control (DeepSeek AI, tariffs, and headlines, etc.), but on what we can: building a strategy that stands the test of time and being opportunistic when the market throws opportunities our way.

At Members’ Wealth we are well into client annual updates or have them coming up on the calendar. If you have yet to have yours scheduled, now is a great time to reach out to get it on the calendar. There is no shortage of topics to talk about. Go Birds! (disclosure, we said politically neutral…)

 

Investment advisory services offered through Member's Wealth, LLC, a registered investment advisor. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The S&P 500 index is designed to be a broad based unmanaged leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe or representative of the equity market in general. The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) is an American stock market that handles electronic securities trading around the world. The Russell 2000 index is an index measuring the performance of approximately 2,000 small-cap companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which is made up of 3,000 of the biggest U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 serves as a benchmark for small-cap stocks in the United States. Visit www.russell.com/indexes/ for more information regarding Russell indices. The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad base, market capitalization-weighted bond market index representing intermediate term investment grade bonds traded in the United States.

About the Author – Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

To get in touch with the Members’ Wealth team today, I invite you to email info@memberswealthllc.com or call (267) 367-5453. 

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Investment advisory services are offered through Members’ Wealth, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisory Firm.

Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. We are an independent advisory firm helping individuals achieve their financial needs and goals

Members’ Wealth does not provide legal, accounting or tax advice. Please consult your tax or legal advisors before taking any action that may have tax consequences.

This commentary reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Members’ Wealth, LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Members’ Wealth, LLC or performance returns of any Members’ Wealth, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Members’ Wealth, LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results

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