Shake It Up. Etch It Out. Redraw the Map. Navigating Uncertainty with Discipline & Perspective

As a kid, I had two prized possessions: a Magic 8-Ball and an Etch A Sketch.

The 8-Ball offered instant wisdom on life’s big questions—like whether Mom would say yes to sleeping over Steven’s after a late night of pond skating: “Too hard to tell.” That answer feels eerily relevant today.

Markets, geopolitics, and policy are all shaking—again. It’s tempting to demand clarity. But what if the only honest answer right now is: “Too soon to tell”?

Lately, I’ve been reflecting on what it means when the world gets shaken—sometimes literally, sometimes economically, sometimes emotionally. The migration of early people to the Americas? That was a shake-up. The arrival of European settlers? Another. Adam Smith introducing Wealth of Nations and the radical idea of global trade based on competitive advantage? Game-changer. Revolutionary, in fact.

But revolutions aren’t clean.

They’re messy, uneven, and painful. Some benefit. Others lose. And during the shaking, no one knows which side of history they’re on.

That brings me to tariffs.

In the past two weeks, headlines have once again turned to Trump-era trade policies, with the most recent rhetoric suggesting potential across-the-board tariffs of 10% and targeted through rapidly shifting surcharges on Chinese goods. Regardless of the outcomes of trade, the way we approached this is a major shift in how the U.S. engages with the world—and investors are starting to notice.

Some view it as protectionism, a step backward. Others see it as finally playing hardball to bring jobs home, or for other reasons altogether. Regardless, it’s a shake to the Etch A Sketch. And like my childhood toy, once you shake too hard, the design disappears.

Sure, you can redraw. But it won’t ever be quite the same. And there’s no “undo” or “back” button.

Investors Are Left Wondering: What Now?

Markets don’t love uncertainty. Neither do most people. But at Members’ Wealth, we believe in navigating uncertainty with perspective.

The Magic 8-Ball says, “Outlook hazy.”
But our investment process says, “Stay grounded.”

We believe:

• Long-term investing works when rooted in structure, not prediction.
• Trade disruptions create both headwinds and opportunity.
• Volatility, like the shaking of an Etch A Sketch, resets the game—sometimes painfully, but also with fresh space for creativity.

Whether we’re discussing tariffs, AI disruption, or interest rates, the story is the same:

• Discipline > Reaction.
• Strategy > Guesswork.
• This Isn’t the First Shake-Up. It Won’t Be the Last.

We’ve seen the world redrawn before—post-war eras, post-dotcom, post-COVID. And through it all, American capitalism and democracy have endured, evolved, and rebuilt. Not perfectly. Not without mistakes. But with surprising resilience.

What matters now is not trying to perfectly recreate what we had, nor as investors dwelling too much on what is actually happening politically, but to thoughtfully redraw something that makes our portfolios stronger. Because while we can't go back, we can move forward—intentionally.

Weekly Market Recap: Week Ending April 11, 2025

Stock Market: Tariff Pause Sparks Sharp Rebound

U.S. equities staged a dramatic comeback following a volatile and uncertain start to the week. A surprise move by President Trump to temporarily pause new tariffs on most trading partners triggered one of the strongest market rallies in over a decade:

• S&P 500: +5.7%
• Nasdaq Composite: +7.3%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.0%
• Russell 2000: +1.8%

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 jumped 9.5%—its best single-day gain since 2008—while the Nasdaq 100 surged 12%, its second-largest daily increase on record. Technology and healthcare sectors led the reversal, with Nvidia and UnitedHealth among top contributors.

Volatility: VIX Surges Above 50, Then Falls Sharply

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s primary “fear gauge,” spiked above 50 midweek—its highest reading since the pandemic's early days. The surge reflected investor anxiety over rapidly evolving trade policy, margin-driven selling, and fears of a policy-induced slowdown. By Friday, the VIX had retreated to near 20, indicating reduced—but still elevated—market stress.

Bond Market: Yields Spike Amid Inflation and Outflows

Bond markets experienced sharp dislocations as yields surged on inflation fears and waning liquidity:

• 10-year Treasury yield: Rose to 4.44%, the largest weekly move in over two decades
• 30-year Treasury yield: Climbed to 4.87%, its highest since January

U.S. bond funds saw $15.6 billion in outflows, part of a broader $25.7 billion global bond exodus. Corporate bond issuance slowed as risk premiums widened and investor appetite declined.

Valuations: P/E Ratios Contract

The recent selloff has compressed equity valuations, creating potential opportunities for long-term investors:

• Forward P/E (S&P 500): Declined from 22.3 at the start of the year to 19.0 as of April 11
• Trailing P/E (S&P 500): Down from 29.86 to 26.67 over the same period

Lower multiples reflect both price declines and moderated earnings expectations amid macro uncertainty.

Market Dislocations: Strategic Opportunity Amid Uncertainty

Periods of heightened volatility often present meaningful opportunities for disciplined investors. At Members’ Wealth, we employ an opportunistic rebalancing strategy that systematically adds to equities during periods of market stress. This time-tested, probability-based process helps clients avoid emotional decision-making and stay grounded, especially during periods of conflicting and confusing headlines.

By removing the guesswork from when to buy, our rebalancing framework is designed to capture long-term value while keeping clients focused on strategy—not sentiment.

Final Thought:

It’s not clear how this latest shake-up will resolve. It’s too soon to tell. But what’s clear is this: if you’re investing like it’s yesterday, you may miss the blueprint for tomorrow.

Let’s talk about how your portfolio is positioned for change—not just to survive it, but to benefit from it.

If you’re wondering whether your portfolio is built for this moment—or if you're still drawing on old frameworks—let's talk. We’re helping families redraw their wealth plans to thrive in a reshaped world. We are working our way through client quarterly meetings and they have been great so far. If you have not had yours or are not on the calendar, please reach out and get it scheduled!

Investment strategies, including rebalancing, do not guarantee improved performance and involve risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. 
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

About the Authors

Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

Tim Macarak CFP®

Tim Macarak is President & Head of Wealth Management at Member’s Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure overtime, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Tim and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs and is determined to put service before all else.

Tim is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® Professional. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, Skiing, Coaching, and Traveling. To learn more about Tim, connect with him on LinkedIn.

To get in touch with the Members’ Wealth team today, I invite you to email info@memberswealthllc.com or call (267) 367-5453. 

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