Tariffs, AI, and the Market’s Gut Check: What We’re Watching and Why:

Markets dropped sharply today—3 to 4% across major indices—after sweeping new tariffs were announced, sparking fears of a global trade war. Many headlines called this “unprecedented.” It’s not. But it is significant, and it is complex.

As stewards of your capital, we’re not here to simply say “stay the course.” That feels like a cop-out when clients are navigating real uncertainty. Instead, our job is to help you understand the forces at play—and how we’re actively adapting, even if we don’t make big portfolio changes on days like this.

Let’s talk tariffs and inflation for a moment.

There’s a common belief that tariffs are always inflationary—and they often are, at first. Prices on imported goods rise, and consumers feel it. But what happens next depends on how businesses and global economies respond:

• In the short run, tariffs can drive inflation. Companies pass costs to consumers. Supply chains absorb shock. Input costs increase.
• In the medium term, reduced global trade and economic slowdown can actually become deflationary, as demand softens, and pricing power erodes.
• And in the long term, efficiency adjustments or global supply realignment may reset the playing field altogether—changing winners and losers across industries.

It’s not a simple answer. It never is.

We’ve seen this before. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, passed in the early days of the Great Depression, sparked retaliatory tariffs and exacerbated the economic crisis. While today’s context is different—more digital, more global, more interconnected, the lesson is the same: broad, aggressive trade restrictions can have lasting ripple effects.

This moment also reveals something deeper: markets don’t just respond to data. They respond to incentives and expectations.

There’s a traditional belief that Trump views the market as a key scorecard. Some are speculating on a potential “Trump Put" the idea that if markets fall too far, he may reverse course to protect economic sentiment. Whether or not that happens, even a hint of reversal could lead to one of the biggest up-days in market history. That’s why panic-selling here can be so dangerous. Timing the bottom is nearly impossible—but missing the rebound is painfully easy.

Meanwhile, we’re watching not just tariffs, but AI innovation, another force that’s reshaping industries and challenging portfolio allocations. Policy creates headwinds and uncertainty, but disruption creates opportunity. And those who can adapt—quickly and strategically—can thrive.

So while we speak in generalities in public posts like these, please know behind the scenes, our investment team is doing the work. We’re stress testing portfolios, modeling scenarios, and preparing for the moment when we believe conditions are right to deploy more risk capital. We’re not there yet—but we’re close. And we’ll be ready.

This is also quarterly meeting season at Members’ Wealth. You’ll be hearing from us soon with your full Q1 review and outlook. Until then, please reach out if you’d like to talk markets, strategies, or just want a sounding board.

We’re here. We’re engaged. And we’re working every day to make sure your wealth not only endures—but evolves with the world.

Investment strategies, including rebalancing, do not guarantee improved performance and involve risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. 
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

About the Author – Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

To get in touch with the Members’ Wealth team today, I invite you to email info@memberswealthllc.com or call (267) 367-5453. 

You can learn more about how we serve our clients by tapping the button below.

Investment advisory services are offered through Members’ Wealth, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisory Firm.

Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. We are an independent advisory firm helping individuals achieve their financial needs and goals

Members’ Wealth does not provide legal, accounting or tax advice. Please consult your tax or legal advisors before taking any action that may have tax consequences.

This commentary reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Members’ Wealth, LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Members’ Wealth, LLC or performance returns of any Members’ Wealth, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Members’ Wealth, LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results

Copyright © 2023 Members' Wealth LLC