More a piece on introspection – so if you are looking for heavy investment insights or tax strategies, you might want to skip this week's blog.

August – A month of celebration and reflection. I was born in August. August 27^th to be specific – Happy Birthday to me! August, perhaps behaviorally anchored in my birthdate, has always been one of high highs and low lows as well. So I ask, is it just me or is there something about August for everyone or at least for other people not born in the month?

On the good side of memories:

My parents married in August, my brother was born five years after me in August, my wife – then fiancé and I bought our first home in August, we filed the LLC for what was to become Members’ Wealth in August. Most likely a coincidence. But man, I dig the month for these dates.

However, August, for me at least, with the notable aforementioned exceptions, is the quietest and at times anxiety-provoking or unnerving month of the year. Perhaps it is being on vacation (which is great but with too much time to think 😉), and while on vacation, given my line of work, feeling like there is an unnecessary amount of unnerving market events occurring. Actually, the worst month and vacation overlap was September 2008 (Lehman Failed!). Never vacationed in September again. For notable events for making August yuck:

1. **August 1929:** The beginning of the Great Depression was marked by a series of stock market declines, which ultimately led to the October 1929 crash.
2. **August 1974:** During the aftermath of the oil crisis and Watergate scandal, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its lowest point of the 1973-1974 bear market.
3. **August 1987:** A sharp decline in stock prices occurred, foreshadowing the Black Monday crash in October of the same year.
4. **August 1990:** The invasion of Kuwait by Iraq led to uncertainty and a drop in stock markets, contributing to the early 1990s recession.
5. **August 1997:** The Asian financial crisis began, with the Thai baht's devaluation, triggering a wider regional economic downturn.
6. **August 1998:** The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund created instability in global markets.
7. **August 2007:** The subprime mortgage crisis started to escalate, contributing to the 2008 financial crisis.
8. **August 2011:** The U.S. credit rating downgrade and concerns about European debt caused significant market volatility.
9. **August 2015:** A "Black Monday" occurred due to China's economic slowdown and currency devaluation, impacting global markets.
10. **August 2019:** An inverted yield curve and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China led to market turbulence and fears of an economic slowdown.

August of 2007 was so bad (Quant Quake[i] anyone?) that I no longer left for vacation without writing down detailed trading instructions for what to do in the event of volatility and an inability to get ahold of me. (This discipline led me to be a big proponent for all of our investors to have their written plan AHEAD OF TIME). The good news, we recovered from all these episodes (eventually – The 1929 one, took some time).

So, here again, in August (back from vacation so don’t worry), I find myself less enthused about turning a year older and in deep thought as to the future. As I contemplated this year's turning of the page, I thought of a favorite album – August and Everything After by the Counting Crows[ii] What does that title mean?

"August and Everything After" is a phrase that conveys a sense of reflection, change, and the passage of time. The word "August" typically refers to the eighth month of the year, a transitional period between summer and autumn. This time often carries a bittersweet feeling, as it marks the end of carefree summer days and the anticipation of the changing seasons. 

The phrase "Everything After" implies a shift or a turning point. It encapsulates the idea that life is a series of moments, experiences, and milestones that unfold after a particular point in time. This phrase can be interpreted as a contemplation of what comes after a significant event, decision, or realization. It encourages us to consider the consequences, growth, and evolution that follow pivotal moments in our lives. 

"August and Everything After" could also be a metaphor for the broader human experience. Each of us has our own "August" – a period of transition, growth, and change – followed by the "Everything After," which represents the journey that unfolds throughout our lives. This phrase serves as a reminder that life is a continuous progression of events and emotions, with each phase holding its own significance and lessons.

Thanks ChatGPT for helping me put on finger on it. August is my August and everyone has an August, though perhaps they call it another month. Regardless, what does this mean for our investors at Members’ Wealth?

If you have not already, before the momentum of the final throes of 2023 takes hold, use this end of summer to reflect, embrace change, and evolve (and tie up loose ends on your written plan!).

Reflection:

Wealth, its creation, preservation, and endurance should merely be an extension of a life well lived. For without a life well lived, wealth is meaningless.

Change:

The days are long, but the years fly by. Enjoy the moment, but embrace the inevitability of change. The optimist in me likes to believe that all change is good, but perhaps it just does not feel that way at the time. With change being the only constant, are you ready for it?

Everything After:

The market has recovered from all of its previous August maladies while my life trajectory forever was altered by my personal monumental historical August events. Good and bad, these transitional moments as with yours, in your “August” are the foundation of what is to come. And I believe the sum total of it will be good.

In essence, "August and Everything After" symbolizes the beauty and complexity of the human experience, emphasizing the significance of moments, the inevitability of change, and the importance of embracing the journey that follows. It's a phrase that invites contemplation about the meaning and value of the events that shape our lives and the ongoing narrative that unfolds after significant points in time. Each August, perhaps I am just the lead role in the “Rain King”[iii]. Can’t wait for next August, but in the meantime, time to grow and evolve. Please join us on the journey.

[i] The Quant Quake of August 2007 refers to a sudden, widespread financial market disruption caused by quantitative investment strategies. Complex mathematical models failed to anticipate market behavior, leading to massive losses for quant hedge funds. This event highlighted the vulnerability of relying solely on algorithms for investment decisions, reshaping risk management practices.

[ii] "August and Everything After" is the title of an album by the Counting Crows. Released in 1993, the album is known for its introspective and poetic lyrics. The title itself captures the themes of nostalgia, introspection, and the complex emotions that arise as time passes and life unfolds.

[iii] "Rain King" is a song by the Counting Crows. Released in 1994, it's a track from their debut album "August and Everything After." The song captures a sense of longing and self-discovery. Its lyrics reflect on themes of searching for purpose and meaning in life, while the "Rain King" metaphorically represents a desire for renewal and transformation. Lead singer Adam Duritz's emotive vocals and the band's melodic instrumentation contribute to the song's introspective and poignant atmosphere. "Rain King" became one of Counting Crows' signature tracks, resonating with listeners for its relatable themes and heartfelt delivery.

About the Author – Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

To get in touch with the Members’ Wealth team today, I invite you to email info@memberswealthllc.com or call (267) 367-5453. 

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